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中國(guó)反制特朗普加稅！底氣何在？
What gives China the confidence
to handle Trump's tariffs？

I've been on the Guangdong Foreign Affairs website because I actually believed that the Canton Fair, starting this week in Guangzhou would be a disaster - it's not what I expected.

我瀏覽了廣東省人民政府外事辦公室的官方網(wǎng)站，因?yàn)槲以疽詾檫@周在廣州開(kāi)幕的廣交會(huì)會(huì)是一場(chǎng)災(zāi)難——實(shí)際情況卻出乎我的意料。

Clearly there's a residual overlap, people booked this fair before they knew what Trump would be doing to China's trade but nevertheless, I'd have thought that many people would cancel - it's absolutely not what they're doing.

顯然還存在一定的滯后效應(yīng)——參展商預(yù)訂廣交會(huì)展位時(shí)還不知道特朗普會(huì)對(duì)中美貿(mào)易采取什么措施。但即便如此，我原以為會(huì)有很多人取消參展——實(shí)際情況卻完全相反。

But first of all, let's look at what My adopted city, Zhongshan, which is only about 80 kilometres away from the Canton Fair is doing. This year, 289 Zhongshan enterprises are represented at the fair, the largest number ever.

但首先，讓我們來(lái)看看我的第二故鄉(xiāng)中山市（距離廣交會(huì)僅約80公里）的表現(xiàn)：本屆廣交會(huì)中山參展企業(yè)達(dá)289家，創(chuàng)歷史新高。

And, along with other cities in Guangdong, Zhongshan has recently rolled out several new sets of policy measures.

此外，與廣東其他城市一樣，中山近期也陸續(xù)出臺(tái)了一系列新的政策措施。

The measures are related to technology and innovations and the main purpose is to boost business opportunities as well as attract top talent.

這些政策措施聚焦科技創(chuàng)新，主要目的是開(kāi)拓商業(yè)機(jī)遇并吸引高端人才。

The city will provide a maximum subsidy of 10 million yuan for national and provincial major innovation platforms, and a maximum subsidy of 2 million yuan for newly-recognized provincial new-type R&D institutions in the optoelectronics and optics sectors.

例如在推動(dòng)光電光學(xué)產(chǎn)業(yè)做大做強(qiáng)方面，中山市將對(duì)國(guó)家級(jí)和省級(jí)重大創(chuàng)新平臺(tái)給予最高1000萬(wàn)元補(bǔ)助，對(duì)新認(rèn)定的省級(jí)新型研發(fā)機(jī)構(gòu)給予最高200萬(wàn)元補(bǔ)助。

But it gets better, when people worry that China isn't doing enough they really need to look at what is on offer even in the smaller cities, because a maximum subsidy of 30 million yuan will be granted to optoelectronics and optics companies that introduce innovative research teams on a trial basis.

但更令人振奮的是，當(dāng)人們擔(dān)憂中國(guó)做得不夠時(shí)，真應(yīng)該看看即便在中小城市提供的扶持政策——對(duì)試點(diǎn)引進(jìn)創(chuàng)新科研團(tuán)隊(duì)的光電企業(yè)，中山市將給予最高3000萬(wàn)元的資助。

And, if you're a returned Chinese wanting to start businesses in these fields here, a maximum start-up fund of 2 million yuan will be available, with venue support of 500 square meters for up to 4 years.

還有，如果你是留學(xué)歸國(guó)人員，想在光電光學(xué)領(lǐng)域創(chuàng)業(yè)發(fā)展，你最高可獲得200萬(wàn)元的創(chuàng)業(yè)啟動(dòng)經(jīng)費(fèi)，并享受最長(zhǎng)4年500平方米的場(chǎng)地支持。

That's the policy in the optical field but there's even more good news - Zhongshan released another policy to further promote the development of the specialized, refined, differential and innovative（SRDI） enterprises. What does that mean?

光電領(lǐng)域的政策已然給力，但中山市還有更多利好——最新出臺(tái)了專項(xiàng)政策，進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)"專精特新"企業(yè)發(fā)展。這究竟意味著什么？

You may get between 3 and 10 million, for setting up SRDI research centres with national qualification here. I could go on, in fact, I will, there are 15 more policies aimed at stabilising foreign trade and promoting growth to, every aspect of Zhongshan's industries have been considered and So, clearly, there's a lot going on that we're not reading about in Western media.

在中山設(shè)立國(guó)家級(jí)“高精特新”（SRDI）研發(fā)中心或可獲得300萬(wàn)至1000萬(wàn)元獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)——而這僅僅是個(gè)開(kāi)始。事實(shí)上，當(dāng)?shù)剡€出臺(tái)了15項(xiàng)穩(wěn)外貿(mào)促增長(zhǎng)政策，覆蓋全市各產(chǎn)業(yè)領(lǐng)域。顯然，這些政策舉措，西方媒體都鮮少報(bào)道。

I'm seeing a lot of reports about how China is struggling, but the statistics here make me question whether they are exaggerating.

盡管西方大量報(bào)道中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的困境，但這里的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)讓我不由質(zhì)疑它們是否夸大其詞。

China's trade overall in the first quarter of this year has exceeded expectations, part of that would have been because of uncertainty in Trump's policies, getting orders onto ships before announcements were made. Now, we're looking at a totally different scenario, buyers aren't reducing their orders, they're simply holding them up until they have some certainty - not just about whether or not they can get them into the USA, but much more likely about whether Trump will change his mind again, or hedging their bets with deliveries to third parties who will add their cost and the those additional costs, if products ever get into the USA, will be passed to the poor consumers.

今年一季度中國(guó)外貿(mào)整體表現(xiàn)超預(yù)期，部分原因或與特朗普政策的不確定性有關(guān)——許多企業(yè)趕在政策公布前就完成了訂單裝運(yùn)。當(dāng)前形勢(shì)已截然不同——采購(gòu)商并未削減訂單，而是持觀望態(tài)度，等待政策明朗化。他們不僅需要考慮貨物能否進(jìn)入美國(guó)市場(chǎng)，更得提防特朗普再次變卦。不少企業(yè)正通過(guò)第三方渠道分?jǐn)傦L(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但這些轉(zhuǎn)口貿(mào)易進(jìn)入美國(guó)市場(chǎng)附加的成本，最終都將轉(zhuǎn)嫁給美國(guó)普通消費(fèi)者。

Guangdong's numbers alone are incredible, they've exported more and they've imported more - copper, coal and crude oil are all massively increased but guess which country is not getting a share of that! ?

單是廣東一省的數(shù)據(jù)就令人驚嘆——進(jìn)出口雙增長(zhǎng)！銅、煤、原油進(jìn)口量激增，但猜猜哪個(gè)國(guó)家沒(méi)能分到這杯羹？

My adopted hometown Zhongshan City, achieved a total import and export volume of 44.95 billion yuan from January to February this year, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. Among them, the export volume reached 39.75 billion yuan, ranking fifth in the province. Last year, Zhongshan's foreign trade import and export volume exceeded 280 billion yuan, also setting a new historical record. Among them, the export volume to Latin American countries soared by 32.4% year-on-year.

我所居住的中山市今年1-2月進(jìn)出口總量達(dá)449.5億元，同比增長(zhǎng)7.9%；其中，出口額達(dá)到397.5億元，排名全省第5。去年，中山外貿(mào)進(jìn)出口規(guī)模突破2800億元，也創(chuàng)下歷史新高。其中對(duì)拉美國(guó)家出口額同比激增32.4%。

In the first quarter, China's imports and exports with the countries and regions involved in Belt and Road Initiative reached a new high for the same period in history, with a growth rate 0.9 percentage points higher than the overall average. Among them, ASEAN remained China's largest trading partner, with imports and exports increasing by 7.1% year-on-year, and its share of China's total foreign trade rose to 16.6%. Imports and exports with the five Central Asian countries increased by 6.9%. This is what diversification looks like.

海關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年第一季度，中國(guó)對(duì)共建“一帶一路”國(guó)家進(jìn)出口規(guī)模再創(chuàng)歷史同期新高，增速高于整體0.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，其中，東盟繼續(xù)穩(wěn)居中國(guó)第一大貿(mào)易伙伴地位，進(jìn)出口同比增長(zhǎng)7.1%，占中國(guó)整體外貿(mào)的比重提升至16.6%，對(duì)中亞五國(guó)進(jìn)出口增長(zhǎng)6.9%。這就是多元化布局的真實(shí)寫(xiě)照。

It isn't going to be an easy transition handling Trump's tariffs but China's policies provide stability, certainty and predictability in an unpredictable world. I'd say that China, Guangdong and Zhongshan are all in a tough spot right now, but well placed to handle whatever this global uncertainty throws at them.?

應(yīng)對(duì)特朗普的關(guān)稅政策并非易事，但中國(guó)的政策在這個(gè)充滿不確定性的世界中提供了穩(wěn)定性、確定性和可預(yù)見(jiàn)性。我可以說(shuō)，中國(guó)、廣東和中山目前都面臨著嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)，但完全有能力應(yīng)對(duì)全球不確定性帶來(lái)的任何沖擊。